Envudeucitinib is NOT FDA-approved. NDA H2 2026. All payer analysis uses Sotyktu (BMS) criteria as the direct proxy.
Clinical Funnel
Access Cascade · Marigold operates here
Total US Plaque Psoriasis · 7.5M adults
Armstrong 2021 NHANES · 3.0% prevalenceNPF cites >8M with 2024 growthBimodal onset: 20–30 yrs and 50–60 yrs
Moderate-to-Severe · ~1.7M biologic-eligible
BSA ≥3–10% or DLQI-inclusive · range 1.5–2.0M~5.8M mild or controlled on topicals~59% of mod-severe received NO treatment in prior year
Oral Addressable · ~200K
Prefer oral route, injection-averse, or would switch from injectableOtezla ~34K pts ($2.27B at ~$67K) validates oral demandIcotrokinra (oral IL-23, J&J Mar 2026) expanding oral-eligible poolDerms rank TYK2 near bottom on efficacy (Recon Strategy Dec 2025)
TYK2 Class Rx at Maturity · ~50K · illustrative
Sotyktu Wall St peak ~$1.9B → ~54K pts at $35K netAlumis disclosed ZERO pricing — all modeling illustrativeLeerink bear: $832M (~24K pts) — class ceiling riskSkyrizi ramp benchmark: $355M yr1 → $17.6B 2025
Hub Enrolled · ~42.5K · −7.5K not enrolled
~85% hub enrollment · specialty oral benchmark~15% prescriber bypasses hub to retail/specialty pharmacyHub design = Alumis decision — no existing infrastructure launch design
Step Therapy Met · ~39K · −3.5K step barrier
Sotyktu-step: 50–75% probability · ~1.5K lost headline riskBiosimilar adalimumab gate · Cordavis/Quallent/Nuvaila · ~1KMTX documentation incomplete · ~1K pre-launch fix67% of commercial lives in ERISA self-funded — state ST laws don't reach them
PA Approved · ~30K · −9K denied · largest single drop
Elevance NON-FORMULARY — 14 states, ~47M members · ~3KMedicare Part D exclusion — 8/10 plans · ~2KDocumentation incomplete / criteria mismatch · ~2.5KCopay maximizer exhaust · ~1.5K pre-launch fix
Dispensed · ~25K · −5K not filled
~70% abandon when OOP >$250 (IQVIA) · ~2.5KMaximizers (47% commercial lives) capture copay card · ~1.5KPharmacy logistics / mail-order friction · ~1K